Super Bowl LVIII Picks & Props
It’s here. The moment we’ve all been all waiting for. Super Bowl LVIII. In this article, I’m reviewing some of my favorite picks and prop bets for Super Bowl 58.
Game Picks
Kansas City Chiefs Money Line +110
How can you bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? They’ve got all the momentum and they’re leaning into the villain mentality. Sure, San Francisco is a good team, but the Chiefs have the better quarterback, and he doesn’t make mistakes. Mahomes’ has hit another level in these playoffs and is willing this team to victory. The fact you can get this bet at plus money is an easy one to start with.
Under 47.5 Total Points -110
This game has the makings of a 24-21 type of finish. Both of these teams like to run the ball and play stout defense. The recipe for success for the Chiefs is to run the ball, control the clock, and have a close outcome. The recipe for success for the 49ers is to run the ball with Christian McCaffrey and get up early to bleed clock. Neither team wants to be in a shootout. I’m betting on the under here because it’s the more likely outcome based on how I see these teams game planning.
This game only hits the over if the 49ers get out to an early lead and run away with it. I don’t see that happening with the amount of time Steve Spagnuolo has to get ready for the 49ers, and secondly with how Brock Purdy has played in these playoffs. Purdy knows from the media asking him the questions, and the recent play, that the pressure is on him to deliver. Spagnuolo will throw things at Purdy that he hasn’t seen before, and these concepts will be designed to get in Purdy’s head early and often.
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (Alternate Spread) +116
It’s hard to pick the Chiefs money line without also picking the on the spread when the spread is under 3. It’s also hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes. And Taylor Swift for that matter. Since I’m favoring the Chiefs from a game flow perspective, with a slow game pace and stout defense, I’m happy to press the odds a bit to pick up a slightly better line with an alternate spread at -1.5 and +116.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes +150, Christian McCaffrey +450, & Travis Kelce +1400
If the Chiefs win, Mahomes or Kelce are the clear favorites. I also like McCaffrey at this price to take home MVP honors if the 49ers win. Each of these 3 players are realistic outcomes in a slow grind-it-out game, and McCaffrey is the workhorse in a San Francisco offense that could have him see historic touches in the game to will his team to win. I still think the Chiefs are better positioned in a lower scoring game, and a higher scoring game risks having Purdy be the favorite in this position. Brock Purdy at +210 could be enticing, but I prefer the concentrated position here.
Color of First Gatorade Poured on Winning Coach: Orange +300, Red +500
The favorite in this scenario is purple and maybe it’s something in the water or some scouting the books have done to show both of these teams like purple gatorade. Or maybe it’s the purple in the Super Bowl logo. I can’t figure it out because everyone likes orange gatorade, and the teams are both red. I’m sticking with orange and red for these reasons. If anyone has the inside connection on how they mix their gatorade, give us a shout.
Coin Toss Outcome: Tails - 104
Always pick tails.
Kansas City Chiefs Props
First Player to Have a Reception: Travis Kelce +210, Isaiah Pacheco +650, Noah Gray +1000
It’s no secret the Kansas City Chiefs will throw the ball to Travis Kelce. Mahomes also likes to check it down to Pacheco fairly often, with the occasional smattering of Noah Gray baked in. The real value in the market here is on Pacheco & Gray,. If making only one bet, Kelce at +210 is a solid wager.
Receiving Yards: Travis Kelce Over 71.5 -110
The Chiefs will have a great defensive game plan to slow down the 49ers offense, and they will want to control the ball through runs and quick, short passes. Travis Kelce has been a monster in these playoffs and this game is where he will take command with the full force of the Swiftie army behind him. Stay out of his way and bet the over. From a football analysis perspective, it’s likely that Dre Greenlaw will cover him. Dre Greenlaw has been a good linebacker in coverage, but Andy Reid’s scheme should be poised enough to find the open spots and weaknesses in this defense. The passing offense will flow through Kelce for the Chiefs.
First Player Over 10 Rushing Yards: Patrick Mahomes +900
Both teams have stout defenses. If the Chiefs get the ball first, it’s feasible to think Mahomes could scramble for 10 yards before Pacheco or McCaffrey hit the mark. At +900, I see there being good value here.
Longest Rush of the Game: Patrick Mahomes +600
It’s also reasonable to think Mahomes could scramble for 20+ yards and end up with the longest rush of the night, considering our angle that this will be a defensive struggle type of game.
Player to Have the Most Rushing Yards: Isiah Pacheco +170
In sticking to the script for how Kansas City will win the game, it’s plausible to think Pacheco ends up with the most rushing yards of the night. I expect the Chiefs to feed him early and often to control clock, and keep feeding him late to keep the 49ers offense off the field. At +170, this feels like a solid value bet.
Player to Have the Most Receiving Yards: Travis Kelce +250
It’s no secret Travis Kelce has been on fire this post season. He’s Mr. Pfizer and Mr. Reliable for this Chiefs team, and I fully expect him to have the most receptions and yards for the Chiefs, regardless of the outcome. If the Chiefs win in a close game, he should be the receiving leader on the night.
Anytime Touchdown: Travis Kelce +100
Even money for a guy that is going to get looks early and often in the redzone? Sign me up.
First Touchdown: Isiah Pacheco +500 and Travis Kelce +800
First touchdown markets are difficult to guess. This one could go a number of ways, but Pacheco and Kelce are players who will get consistent looks in the red zone. At these prices, I find these to be good value picks.
Player to Score 2 Touchdowns: Travis Kelce +800
If anyone will score 2 touchdowns for the Chiefs, it will be Kelce. The 8 to 1 value here is too juicy to pass up.
Player to Record an Interception: L'Jarius Sneed +600 (+1000 First Interception of Game)
Steve Spanuolo will creatively scheme and get into Brock Purdy’s head, forcing him to make mistakes while also putting the Chiefs’ defenders into the best positions possible. L'Jarius Sneed is one of the Chiefs’ top corners and will be in prime position to grab an interception. I also like him to record the first interception of the game.
San Franciso 49ers Props
First Player to Have a Reception: Christian McCaffrey +300 & Kyle Juszczyk +1200
I fully expect Christian McCaffrey to be the workhorse back, but Kyle Juszczyk is also someone Kyle Shanahan likes to scheme for. The +1200 price on Juscyzk is too good to pass up, and McCaffrey at +300 is also a steal. I like both of these plays.
Player to Have the Most Receiving Yards: Brandon Aiyuk +350
Brandon Aiyuk has been the go-to receiver for Purdy throughout the year when he’s needed big plays. I can easily see him being heavily involved in the play action passing game, and in my version of a 49ers victory, he is the featured receiver who helps them win big. He made big plays in the NFC Championship game, and he could very well do it again on Sunday.
First Player Over 10 Rushing Yards: Brock Purdy +2500
One scramble is all it takes. Brock Purdy may be blinded by the big lights on the first drive or dealing with nerves. When he gets frantic, he trusts his legs to take him the distance. This is an easy value bet.
Player to Have the Most Rushing & Receiving Yards: Christian McCaffrey -175
What doesn’t McCaffrey do for the 49ers? He should win this category by a clear mile if he stays healthy during the game, regardless of the outcome. The only way this doesn’t happen is if the Chiefs focus all of their defensive might on stopping him and forcing Purdy to beat them, which they may very well do. I still expect McCaffrey to get his fair share.
Anytime Touchdown: Kyle Juszcyzk +950
This one screams bet me by the shear fact that Shanahan will scheme specific plays to have his fullback get looks in the end zone through hand offs and play action passes. The value here is prime time for Juscyzk to be a key player in this matchup with such focus on McCaffrey.
First Touchdown: Christian McCaffrey +340 & Kyle Juszczyk +4400
These bets should not need much explaining after my opinions on the above options. The offense flows through CMC and Juszcyzk will see looks with the scheme. Maybe I just get excited about the potential of a +4400 happening. Either way there is still solid value here to pick up on these outcomes.
Player to Record Sack: Nick Bosa -104
Nick Bosa is the best defensive lineman on the 49ers and he is matched up against the worst offensive lineman on the Chiefs, Jawaan Taylor. I think the price on this line should be much lower than where it is. I’m taking this bet.
Brock Purdy - Interception: Yes -132
Unfortunately for Purdy, I do see him being vulnerable to a very well-coached Chiefs defense. Look for him to throw an interception at any point in the game. This is a solid spot I like with how Purdy has played through the playoffs.
Final Thoughts
No matter the outcome, this game is full of great story lines. We could be witnessing the crowning of a 49ers team that has been seen throughout the season as a juggernaut with a “game manager” for a quarterback who doesn’t care what the media think. We could also see the cementing of Mahomes’ legacy and the rise of perhaps the only player who has a realistic chance to obtain Tom Brady level greatness. As a football fan, how can you hate either one of these outcomes? I know I can’t.
For those betting, always remember Betting involves inherent risks, and all wagers you decide to place are placed at your own risk. The odds and lines presented in this article are subject to change, and this article represents opinions for entertainment purposes and should not be considered financial advice. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek help. by visiting morethanagame.nc.gov or by calling 1-877-718-5543.